SPORTS BETTING SYSTEMS

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The following lecture was delivered by Earnest Loyalle at Amareada University in 2007.  Professor Loyalle has worked within the gaming industry for three decades.   In addition to his academic work he has most recently been a consultant to the Gaming Board Of Rhode Island.  

SPORTS BETTING SYSTEMS: The Only One That (mathematically) Works COMPOUNDING PROBABILITY SYSTEM the compounding probability system (CPS) has been around since at least 1967 when it was the subject of a brief lecture during a Actuary convention in, of all places, Las Vegas, NV.   The idea is simple and applicable to all sports and casino betting however it is most often used in competition betting where a "moneyline" is used.   Although most casino and sportsbook prohibit the use of the CPS it can be hard to detect.   A few online bookmakers don't restrict it believing that a ban would merely publicize a practice they can't realistically stop. The CPS is founded on the mathematical concept of probability.   A flipped coin has a 1:2 probability of landing heads, however the same coin has a 1:4 probability of landing heads twice in a row, 1:8 of landing three times etc to infinity.   Applied to a sports team, this implies that, all things being equal, the odds of one team winning, or losing, is 1:4.  The CPS looks at teams that have lost and presumes that the odds of them losing another game is higher because the chances of losing two (or more) games in a row are greater. A CPS bettor is not betting that a team will win -  he is betting that a team will not LOSE two games in a row. The problem with this logic is that those numbers are only exact when taken out to the infinite power.  On a singular scale, with just one bet, the mathematical odds of a team winning any one game do not significantly change whether that team has won one game in a row or ten.  To take advantage of the CPS a bettor would need to place a dozens of bets over time, creating a larger "probability pool". This system is often confused for the "Martindale" system, which varies the amount of money based on how high the "compounded probability" is persieved, but it is far from the same.     A Martindale bettor would double his bet everytime a team loses, understanding that sooner or later the team HAS to win.  Unfortunately a $5 bet can quickly turn into a $640 bet if the losing streak goes out to 8 bets.   Most bettors don't have the cash or the will to pursue this kind of betting to the bitter end.   The CPS lets a bettor with a small pot spread his risk over many games to slowly, efficiently accumulate winnings. To illustrate the CPS lets use baseball.   On any given night half of the teams will lose.   Since the odds of a team losing two games in a row are 1:4 we now consider betting only teams lost the night before.   Although the mathematical probability does not imply a difference, many believe that a team coming off a loss is more motivated to win than a team coming off a win.   Baseball utilizes a "moneyline", which means the teams considered the less likely to win get paid more, so a percieved underdog might pay $14 for every $10 that is bet, while the favorite might only win $8 for every $10.   Because the perception of bettors favors teams that have just won, the underdog always figures to have a better return so a CPS better might also only bet underdogs to net a higher return.   If the bettor only plays teams that lost the previous day and are moneyline underdogs they may find themselves with as many as 8 or 9 teams to bet, however on most days it will be 3 - 5 games.   Since they are only betting "dogs" they only have to go .500 to net a profit and Compound Probabilty tells us that, over time, they will do significantly better than that. Experiment yourself:  While most online sportsbooks and casinos filter for CPS betting some don't and will allow you to establish a free account.  Here is a link to one of the largest and most reputable online sportbooks that will allow you to set up an account and play for free: http://www.betus.com/ats/13408/baseball   BetUS  does not automatically screen for Compounding Probability betting, however they will ban a player if it comes to their attention.  They are also the only online book  that allows a $5 minumum bet. If you decide to try the system out with real money you need to keep in mind the "Probability Pool" we spoke of at the beginning of this lecture: the more bets you have out there the less likely you are to hit a random bad luck streak and the more likely you are to acheive a 3:1 winning ratio.   Most sportsbooks require a minimum bet of $10 so you would want to go in with at least $100 to wager.   I recommend that you only start with $5 and let your "bank" grow with the sportsbooks money.   Copywrite 2007 - all rights reserved - Please contact your administrator for republication approval. ________________________________________ The tenth lecture in this series, "Technology and Illegal Gambling" will be available  Sept. 13, 2007